Saturday, July 05, 2008

Critical reasoning - a practical approach

Conclusion : This one is a boring post!
Evidence: The title has put you off!
Assumption: All posts with these kinds of titles are thoroughly boring & soporific.

If this reflects your chain of thoughts, you are already a victim of flawed reasoning my dear bondu :P and you MUST read on for some reflective humour :D /*okay! an attempt to reflective humour*/

To begin with one of the most absurd causal flaws in software industry
/*Causal flaw - when you assume a cause-effect relationship is perfect*/
Conclusion: To quicken the process of finding and fixing software bugs, the manager proposes an incentive plan: 20$ for each bug found by the testing team and 20$ for each bug fixed by the developement team.
/*Do you find any absurdity in this? Sounds a perfect startegy? yu hu!! you fell into the trap :) :) :)*/
Evidence(=> why do you make the above conclusion?, this is a fact based on which you make the above conclusion, this is certainly 100% true) : Greed is perfectly humane & all homo sapiens on this god's green planet can do any thing for the green paper.
Assumption(Something hidden in the stream of thought while you make the above conclusion, caveat: this could be and generally is 100% wrong) : Homo sapiens can do anything for the green paper! "Do anything" = nothing with malign intentions, always put the company before self. Developers will not intentionally spring up the no: of bugs even though this could be chance for them to make money, because the same developers who generate bugs, fix them for 20$ each.

Result of this incentive plan, one employee nets 1700$ in the first week.
/*FYI the idea for the above piece of causal flaw has been highly inspired by the works of Scott Adams. */

Reverse causal flaw, this ones common to any MNC that follows variable pay structure.
/*Reverse causal - when you assume 'A' is the cause, while 'B' is the effect, but practically its the other way B causes A*/
Conclusion: The incentives & hikes are proportional to the associates performance, and contribution to the projects he/she works on.
Evidence: Its obvious, as you sow so shall you reap.
The Catch: Actually its the other way, chucky bonuses and inorganic hikes motivate associates to perform better. So managers should take the first step to motivate their employees.
/* THEY NEVER SEEM TO GET THE POINT. Note the caps, hope it loud enough, are you listening boss??!!! */

Next comes analogy flaw, this ones for all who crib comparing themselves with others.
/*Analogy flaw- when you compare apples to oranges*/
Conclusion: I should be getting the same hike & recognition as a peer who has almost identical profile & puts in same similar effort as I do.
Evidence: Perks and hikes are directly proportional to strength of your profile & th eeffort you put in.
Assumption: You & your peer are clones, identical in every way! Performance review depends on various other factors like your EQ(eulogising quotient), marketing skills(its not about what you do its about what you show you do!), sometimes physical appearance, etc.

Finally the statistical flaw,
/*Generalising your conclusion by collecting data from a small group, assuming the group represents the entire population.*/
Conclusion: The annual CEO survey shows the opnion of the employees on various aspects of the company, it can safely be used to chalk the developement needs of the company.
Evidence: The survey is open to all, it is taken by the employees only & the survey results are not tampered with.
Assumption: The people who take the survey are actually the ones from whom the company intends to take feedback :P , the percentage participation is decent.
/*Only people who dont really have important work can afford spending time on things like survey, & basing the strategic plan of the company on these results is ridiculous, aint it?*/